The Oscar race is on.
The acting races at this year’s 98th ceremony are anything but straightforward. Across lead and supporting categories, the field is defined by generational clashes, overdue narratives, potential history-makers and a few spoilers who could upend what pundits and awards enthusiasts are expecting.
We have candidates like Timothée Chalamet and Jacob Elordi who are chasing youth records. Contenders like Emma Stone and Sean Penn who are eyeing rare third trophies. There are veterans like Delroy Lindo and Amy Madigan, who have long-awaited for recognitions throughout their careers. And of course, international standouts like Renate Reinsve and Wagner Moura, showing that subtitles are no longer hinderances. Each nominee carries momentum, and each one has some vulnerabilities, in the context of what could have their names printed on an envelope.

Variety breaks down the pros and cons facing each contender because in a season this competitive, the smallest advantage could decide who hears their name called on Oscar night.

“Marty Supreme”
FORChalamet highlights his charisma and volatility playing an unknown table tennis prodigy. This marks his third Oscar nomination, following “Call Me by Your Name” and “A Complete Unknown,” signaling the Academy’s sustained respect for the actor’s evolution. With Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins already secured, the momentum is real.
AGAINSTHe’s still young in Oscar terms. At 30, he would become the second-youngest best actor winner ever. The performance is deliberately showy, and some voters may feel the virtuosity outweighs emotional revelation. Chalamet also plays a character, Marty Mauser, that is also deeply unlikable — a hurdle in a category that often rewards empathy.

“One Battle After Another”
FORA controlled, often comedic performance with plenty of memorable moments. The eight-time acting nominee and 2016 winner (“The Revenant”) reminds voters of his commanding screen presence. The film’s robust 13 nominations, including best picture, signal enthusiasm across all branches.
AGAINSTThis is familiar territory for DiCaprio, and the film’s ensemble emphasis can blunt the sense of a singular, career-defining showcase. It also doesn’t follow the typical narrative of a second Oscar win for a leading man (i.e., Daniel Day-Lewis, Dustin Hoffman, etc.)
“Blue Moon”
FORA devastating portrait of famed musician Lorenz Hart that conveys his rhythm and intellect. Hawke’s fifth nomination — his first in lead actor — feels like a career acknowledgment for decades of grinding in the Hollywood industry. Few actors have collaborated so widely or so curiously across generations and styles.
AGAINSTThe performance is big and plays to the back of the room. Some voters may not respond to his charm and wit. With only two nominations for “Blue Moon,” the film appears to have struggled to fully register with the Academy at large.
“Sinners”
FORIt’s a bold turn playing twin brothers that balances confidence with psychological fracture, demanding stamina and range. Jordan’s first Oscar nomination follows long-cited omissions in earlier Ryan Coogler films such as “Fruitvale Station” and “Black Panther,” and arrives alongside the year’s most-nominated film. If voters treat “Sinners” as a full-scale sweep, he could ride that wave.
AGAINSTSome may view the doubling as a technical achievement rather than an emotional one, with focus split between identities. Genre bias remains a real obstacle. See Demi Moore’s loss last year for “The Substance.”
“The Secret Agent”
FORA refined, textured performance that charts identity with political urgency. Moura inhabits the raw honesty of a man caught in the heart of authoritarianism, anchoring a timely, true-story-adjacent drama. As the first Brazilian nominee in the category — a milestone that lives beside his historic Golden Globe win — his presence alone marks a meaningful moment.

AGAINSTThe film’s density and non-English-language presentation may limit its immediacy for voters drawn to more overt catharsis. It is also a deliberately restrained performance in a field full of volume. SAG and BAFTA snubs further limit Moura’s winning chances as no lead actor has ever won an Oscar without them in the modern era.
“Hamnet”
FORA raw, unsparing embodiment of grief as a lived-in condition rather than a narrative device. Buckley navigates the film in elemental sorrow without sentimentality, delivering what many consider the performance of the year, and undoubtedly her career so far. Her second nom after “The Lost Daughter” confirms her stature among the most formidable actors of her generation with adoring respect.
AGAINSTThe movie’s emotional severity may be eclipsed by those who are scared to engage with it. Despite eight nominations, the film’s failure to carry Paul Mescal to a nom hints at uneven Academy support.
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
FORA ferocious, discomfort-forward performance that never softens its edges. Byrne commits fully to a woman unraveling in real time, turning psychological collapse into something uncomfortably familiar. After two decades of exceptional work (i.e., “Bridesmaids,” “Spy”), this marks her long-overdue first invite to the ceremony.
AGAINSTThe film’s abrasive tone may alienate voters, and with just this single nomination for the Mary Bronstein dark comedy, it lacks broader institutional support.
“Song Sung Blue”
FORA warm and calibrated comeback that blends her talents with vulnerability and musical ease. Twenty-four years after her “Almost Famous” nomination, Hudson returns with added gravity and reminds voters that she still has it (and never lost it).
AGAINSTThe arc may feel familiar compared with more formally adventurous work. With just one nomination, the film failed to generate additional momentum.
“Sentimental Value”
FORQuietly authoritative, Reinsve anchors Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama with intelligence and restraint. After missing recognition for “The Worst Person in the World,” her nomination positions the star as one of international cinema’s most compelling contemporary performers.

AGAINSTSubtlety can be mistaken for simplicity, particularly in a field favoring loud voices and transformations. Despite nine nominations, the SAG snub lingers as a warning sign.
“Bugonia”
FORA fearless performance that leans fully into absurdity while maintaining control that keeps the viewers on the edge. The two-time Oscar winner (“La La Land,” “Poor Things”) continues her run of bold, director-driven choices that make her a default nomination for anything she touches. A strong future candidate to join Meryl Streep and Frances McDormand in the three-timers club.
AGAINSTVoters may hesitate to reward her so soon after a recent win. In addition, the film’s tonal extremes could divide viewers. It’s a Yorgos Lanthimos film after all.
“One Battle After Another”
FORA volatile, scene-stealing turn marked by charisma and mordant humor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s revolutionary epic. The Oscar winner (“Traffic”) exerts effortless control, reminding voters of his unguarded presence.
AGAINSTLimited screen time may make the impact feel fleeting compared with meatier roles. At just 13 minutes and 11 seconds — the briefest among this year’s nominees, according to Screen Time Central — his performance would rank as the sixth shortest ever to win the category by total minutes, and the third shortest by percentage of the film, at 8.15%.
“Frankenstein”
FORA physically demanding and vulnerable take on the Creature that avoids caricature. Elordi brings unexpected tenderness and discipline under Guillermo del Toro’s direction, earning his first nomination and a Critics Choice win.
AGAINSTGenre bias remains a stubborn barrier, regardless of ambition or execution. At 28, he would also be the second-youngest winner in the category. Would the Academy skew so young for two winners?
“Sinners”
FORA monumental, lived-in performance steeped in history, authority and quiet devastation. Lindo elevates every scene through presence alone, and his first nomination at 73 carries the undeniable weight of being overdue (hello, “Da 5 Bloods”).
AGAINSTThe film’s scale can swallow even exceptional supporting work. He also lacks any other televised nominations, which no acting winner except for Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2001) was able to overcome.

“Sentimental Value”
FORA devastating portrait of paternal regret delivered almost entirely through restraint. Skarsgård communicates volumes in silence, earning his first nomination after an impeccable 50-year career. A Golden Globe win strengthens his case.
AGAINSTThe subtlety may be overlooked in a category that often rewards bolder strokes. Category placement remains contentious, and he also missed a SAG nomination.
“Sentimental Value”
FORElegant and incisive, Fanning provides a crucial emotional counterbalance as a Hollywood actress taking on a role that seems too large for herself. Her first nomination at 26 reflects her years of carefully chosen work.
AGAINSTLimited spotlight and missed SAG and BAFTA nominations weaken her path in a crowded field.
“Sentimental Value”
FORA finely tuned, quietly affecting portrayal that adds specificity to the film’s family dynamics. Her nomination shows the Academy’s continued openness to international actors, even if they don’t know how to pronounce their names, and could even translate into a surprise BAFTA triumph.
AGAINSTLimited name recognition, which has hindered contenders in past years, along with potential vote-splitting with Fanning, further complicates her pathway.
“Weapons”
FORIt’s a lively yet grounded performance that anchors the intensity of Zach Cregger’s horror film. Her first nomination since 1985’s “Twice in a Lifetime” marks one of the season’s strongest comeback narratives, bolstered by a Critics Choice win.
AGAINSTThe role lacks the typical traditional Oscar-clip moment. As a lone nominee from a horror film, that hurts her chances. Missing BAFTA also stings.
“Sinners”
FORA commanding, soulful performance by the Nigerian British actress provides the film’s moral center. Mosaku adds beautiful textures to a visually driven spectacle that earned her a deserved inaugural Oscar bid.
AGAINSTThe ensemble focus diffuses individual attention, and a missed Globe nomination slowed early momentum.
“One Battle After Another”
FORA fearless, sharply etched turn that lingers well beyond its opening 30 minutes of Paul Thomas Anderson’s ambitious dramedy. Taylor’s first acting nomination speaks to a welcomed embrace by the Academy of an unconventional talent that’s been amplified by a Golden Globe-winning speech that became an instant season highlight.

AGAINSTSome voters may view the character as more emblematic than fully dimensional, lacking the traditional arc — one that is often not rewarded in this category.
Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien. Variety’s official Oscar predictions are updated every Thursday.
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